Polls Show One Of The Key Factors In Trump’s 2016 Victory Is Missing Now


Topline

This yr, polls present President Trump might lack one of many key substances that helped him engineer a surprising upset within the Electoral College in 2016: undecided voters who broke late to him.

Key Facts

A 2016 postelection survey by Pew Research discovered that 37% of undecided voters pulled the lever for Trump 37% versus 18% for Clinton, a 19-point cut up that the New York Times characterised as far bigger than ordinary

Many of those voters swung to Trump within the ultimate days of the election: a examine performed by the American Association for Public Opinion Research discovered that roughly 13% of voters in Wisconsin, Florida and Pennsylvania made up their minds about who to vote for within the ultimate week earlier than Election Day, the Wall Street Journal studies.

These voters backed Trump by nearly 30 factors in Wisconsin and 17 factors in Florida and Pennsylvania, in line with the examine, which means the president did extra than simply outperform polls.

This yr, polls present there are fewer undecided voters, and most of them seem like leaning in direction of Joe Biden, not the president, which reduces the chance for a final minute shift within the race in Trump’s favor. 

A brand new Wall Street Journal/NBC News ballot of voters in 12 battleground states—Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—exhibits the race principally unchanged within the final week, with Biden forward by a mixed 5 factors (51%-46%), after main by a mixed 6 factors in the identical ballot one week earlier. 

Just 1% of the voters within the ballot mentioned they have been undecided, in line with the Wall Street Journal (Trump gained the identical group of battlegrounds by a mixed 2 factors in 2016, in line with NBC News.)

What To Watch For

A latest New York Times/Siena College nationwide ballot discovered simply 9% of voters remained undecided, whereas round 20% of voters mentioned the identical in 2016 on the identical level. Out of the group of undecided voters, 54% mentioned that they had an unfavorable view of Trump (28% had a positive view), whereas simply 47% mentioned the identical about Biden. 

Key Background

This drawback turns into larger for Trump when you think about the very fact polls present he’s a steep underdog. The president trails Biden by round eight factors in nationwide polling averages. Biden holds a big lead in Wisconsin and Michigan, and a smaller however regular lead in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Arizona. 

Further Reading

Today’s 2020 Election Polls: Biden Has A Cushion In Pennsylvania—But It’s Not Much (Forbes)

Trump Can Still Win—Here Are His Possible Paths To Victory (Forbes)

Trump Can Still Win, But The Polls Would Have To Be Off By Way More Than In 2016 (FiveThirtyEight)

I’m Here To Remind You That Trump Can Still Win (FiveThirtyEight)



Source link Forbes.com

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